Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.9 | 10.3% | 8 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.3 | 14.1% | 11 | 0.08% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.9 | 11.5% | 9 | 0.04% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.0 | 10.3% | 8 | 0.06% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.7 | 16.7% | 13 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.1 | 15.4% | 12 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 0.7 | 7.7% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.9 | 14.1% | 11 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 9 | 8.4 | 100% | 78 | 0.07% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 30034 | 229386 | 713 | 185 | 80 |
| Mar 26 | 30042 | 229544 | 713 | 185 | 77 |
| Mar 27 | 30043 | 229611 | 713 | 185 | 71 |
| Mar 28 | 30055 | 229812 | 713 | 185 | 67 |
| Mar 29 | 30065 | 230018 | 714 | 185 | 77 |
| Mar 30 | 30074 | 230255 | 714 | 185 | 80 |
| Mar 31 | 30083 | 230352 | 714 | 185 | 78 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 18601 | 152702 | 694 | 179 | 37 |
| Mar 26 | 18601 | 152852 | 694 | 179 | 32 |
| Mar 27 | 18601 | 152892 | 694 | 179 | 28 |
| Mar 28 | 18606 | 152987 | 696 | 179 | 30 |
| Mar 29 | 18611 | 153146 | 697 | 179 | 33 |
| Mar 30 | 18614 | 153347 | 697 | 179 | 35 |
| Mar 31 | 18619 | 153385 | 697 | 179 | 37 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 5.4% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.4 | 13.5% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.0 | 10.8% | 4 | 0.06% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 0.9 | 21.6% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.4 | 16.2% | 6 | 0.08% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.3 | 8.1% | 3 | 0.03% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 8.1% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.6 | 16.2% | 6 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 5 | 3.1 | 100% | 37 | 0.06% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 13428 | 89524 | 543 | 143 | 18 |
| Mar 26 | 13428 | 89570 | 543 | 143 | 16 |
| Mar 27 | 13428 | 89595 | 543 | 143 | 15 |
| Mar 28 | 13428 | 89668 | 543 | 143 | 12 |
| Mar 29 | 13433 | 89740 | 543 | 143 | 15 |
| Mar 30 | 13435 | 89785 | 544 | 143 | 14 |
| Mar 31 | 13436 | 89814 | 544 | 143 | 14 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.3 | 14.3% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.3 | 21.4% | 3 | 0.06% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.1 | 14.3% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 35.7% | 5 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 14.3% | 2 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 1 | 1.4 | 100% | 14 | 0.03% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 34603 | 307758 | 1023 | 181 | 139 |
| Mar 26 | 34608 | 307918 | 1023 | 181 | 135 |
| Mar 27 | 34610 | 308057 | 1023 | 181 | 124 |
| Mar 28 | 34630 | 308338 | 1023 | 181 | 128 |
| Mar 29 | 34638 | 308677 | 1023 | 181 | 132 |
| Mar 30 | 34653 | 308926 | 1023 | 181 | 131 |
| Mar 31 | 34664 | 309057 | 1023 | 181 | 121 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 2.4 | 19.8% | 24 | 0.2% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 2.1 | 17.4% | 21 | 0.13% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.3 | 13.2% | 16 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.3 | 14% | 17 | 0.13% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 1.0 | 10.7% | 13 | 0.1% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.1 | 13.2% | 16 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.7 | 5.8% | 7 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.6 | 5.8% | 7 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 11 | 10.6 | 100% | 121 | 0.1% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 123825 | 2406787 | 2527 | 503 | 778 |
| Mar 26 | 123879 | 2408376 | 2527 | 503 | 747 |
| Mar 27 | 123917 | 2409175 | 2528 | 503 | 714 |
| Mar 28 | 124024 | 2410572 | 2529 | 503 | 759 |
| Mar 29 | 124178 | 2413205 | 2531 | 503 | 853 |
| Mar 30 | 124290 | 2415306 | 2533 | 503 | 933 |
| Mar 31 | 124422 | 2416810 | 2535 | 503 | 997 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 19 | 13.6 | 14.4% | 144 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 11.9 | 11.9% | 119 | 0.17% |
| 20-29 | 19 | 16.9 | 17.8% | 177 | 0.17% |
| 30-39 | 35 | 22.3 | 21.1% | 210 | 0.27% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 13.0 | 13.3% | 133 | 0.2% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 7.9 | 8.1% | 81 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 7.1 | 6.5% | 65 | 0.12% |
| 70+ | 11 | 6.9 | 6.8% | 68 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 132 | 99.4 | 100% | 997 | 0.18% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 1583166 | 14011172 | 63299 | 14313 | 3927 |
| Mar 26 | 1583416 | 14020921 | 63306 | 14314 | 3636 |
| Mar 27 | 1583646 | 14026533 | 63315 | 14315 | 3442 |
| Mar 28 | 1584114 | 14037189 | 63329 | 14315 | 3553 |
| Mar 29 | 1584697 | 14052246 | 63341 | 14315 | 3879 |
| Mar 30 | 1585243 | 14066323 | 63353 | 14317 | 4206 |
| Mar 31 | 1585768 | 14074662 | 63363 | 14317 | 4336 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 56 | 44.7 | 10.5% | 456 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 47 | 46.3 | 10.7% | 463 | 0.06% |
| 20-29 | 80 | 58.3 | 14.6% | 632 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 104 | 72.1 | 16.7% | 724 | 0.1% |
| 40-49 | 65 | 60.6 | 13.4% | 583 | 0.08% |
| 50-59 | 75 | 57.7 | 13.3% | 577 | 0.07% |
| 60-69 | 60 | 51.3 | 10.9% | 474 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 38 | 39.1 | 9.8% | 427 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 525 | 430.1 | 100% | 4336 | 0.07% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-04-24 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 14100"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges